ALPHAZETA / RESEARCH INDEX
Practical ways to reason about cash, evidence and uncertainty.
Research methods
A business can make money on a sale and still fail before it collects. The crucial question is how much cash it needs at its worst moment—and whether that funding is actually available.
Research methods
A celebrated forecast can contain a brilliant mechanism, significant misses and unresolved evidence questions at the same time. Durnovo’s 1914 memorandum is worth studying for the chain of failure it describes—not treating as a perfect scorecard.
Research methods
Before believing a chart’s story, establish what it measures. A change is not a level, a forecast is not an observation, and two lines moving together do not establish a cause.