What is the business worth?

Equations and assumptions

Calculations use ₹ millions and rates as fractions; narrative statement amounts are ₹ crore unless stated otherwise. Displayed financial tables use ₹ crore. A–E refer to the corresponding historical statement tables.

1. Axis and base year

• E1. The axis is FY23–FY26 actual and FY27–FY37 forecast. FY26 is the base year: it is the last audited year (A, B, C, D) and the last year before the project's capital lands. FY22 is deliberately not on the axis: the source review records that no FY2022 statement was reviewed, so putting the peak year on the axis would mean anchoring on spoken figures.

2. Revenue

• E2. ai_revenue[t] = ai_revenue[t-1] × (1 + ai_growth[t]). Base from B, FY26 2,553.32.
• E3. ph_base_revenue[t] = ph_base_revenue[t-1] × (1 + ph_growth[t]). Base from B, FY26 5,400.68. This is Phenolics as the existing asset earns it, before the project.
• E4. project_revenue[t] = project_capex_cumulative[commissioned] × project_asset_turnover × project_ramp[t]. Zero until the commissioning year. Asset turnover rather than tonnes × price because no capacity or realisation is disclosed for a plant that does not yet exist; management's own project-selection criterion in earnings-call commentary is an asset turnover of about 2:1, which is what makes this form defensible rather than arbitrary.
• E5. inter_segment[t] = (ai_revenue[t] + ph_base_revenue[t] + project_revenue[t]) × inter_segment_rate. From B: 31.98/8,004.04, 45.50/7,727.33, 50.48/8,332.41, 66.93/7,954.00 — 0.40%, 0.59%, 0.61%, 0.84%, rising.
• E6. revenue_from_operations[t] = ai_revenue[t] + ph_base_revenue[t] + project_revenue[t] − inter_segment[t].
• E7. other_income[t] = revenue_from_operations[t] × other_income_rate. From A: 83.86/8,281.93 = 1.01%, 59.87/7,887.07 = 0.76%.
• E8. total_income[t] = revenue_from_operations[t] + other_income[t]. This is the line management speaks (boundary B1); the model reports both so the two can be compared without confusion.

3. Segment profit

• E9. ai_ebit[t] = ai_revenue[t] × ai_ebit_margin[t]. From B: 18.3%, 16.4%, 7.0%, 4.2%.
• E10. ph_base_ebit[t] = ph_base_revenue[t] × ph_ebit_margin[t]. From B: 12.0%, 12.9%, 13.5%, 12.9%.
• E11. project_ebit[t] = project_revenue[t] × project_ebit_margin[t].
• E12. segment_result[t] = ai_ebit[t] + ph_base_ebit[t] + project_ebit[t].
• E13. unallocable_net[t], held at its four-year average. From B: −21.13, −23.78, −21.59, −14.42 — a net credit in every year, averaging −20.23, i.e. unallocable income exceeds unallocable cost.
• E14. ebit[t] = segment_result[t] − unallocable_net[t]. Note the sign: note 43 subtracts unallocable net expenditure, and it has been negative, so this adds.

4. Below EBIT

• E15. depreciation[t] = existing_depreciation[t] + project_depreciation[t], where existing_depreciation[t] = existing_depreciation[t-1] × (1 + existing_dep_growth) and project_depreciation[t] = project_capex_total / project_asset_life from the commissioning year. From B and A: total depreciation 166.30, 165.66, 195.37, 224.64; segment split available for FY25 and FY26.
• E16. finance_cost[t] = debt_basis[t] × interest_rate, where the default debt basis is the average of opening and closing debt; opening debt can be selected instead. From A: 24.77, 11.83, 27.50, 46.02, against opening borrowings from C.
• E17. pbt[t] = ebit[t] − finance_cost[t] − exceptional_items[t]. Exceptional items apply only to reported actual years. Other income is already reflected in unallocable net income and must not be added twice.
• E18. tax[t] = pbt[t] × effective_tax_rate. From A: FY26 (190.71+15.72)/757.09 = 27.3%; FY25 (228.33+27.05)/952.75 = 26.8%.
• E19. pat[t] = pbt[t] − tax[t].
• E20. ebitda_management[t] = pbt[t] + finance_cost[t] + depreciation[t]. Boundary B2: this reproduces the number management speaks, because it leaves other income in. An EBITDA excluding other income can be derived by subtracting other income. The current calculation does not display that separate series. For FY2026, add back exceptional items to reconcile to management’s reported EBITDA.

5. Capital and working capital

• E21. working_capital[t] = inventory[t] + receivables[t] − payables[t], each as days on revenue from operations. From C, FY26: inventories 862.30, receivables 1,505.56, payables 534.11 on revenue 7,887.07 — 39.9, 69.7 and 24.7 days.
• E22. delta_working_capital[t] = working_capital[t] − working_capital[t-1].
• E23. maintenance_capex[t] = revenue_from_operations[t] × maintenance_capex_rate, separate from project capex. From B, excluding the FY26 Advanced Intermediates spike: total capex 144.99, 471.82, 335.45 on revenue 7,972.06, 7,681.83, 8,281.93 — 1.8%, 6.1%, 4.1%. The FY26 figure of 1,029.08 is 13.0% and is programme spend, not maintenance.
• E24. capex[t] = maintenance_capex[t] + project_capex[t].

6. The project branch

The project is modelled explicitly rather than folded into an existing segment’s growth rate.

• E25. project_capex[t] follows a schedule summing to project_capex_total. Management announced ₹11,500 crore announced in August 2026 with debt tied up, at 60:40 debt to equity, commissioning stated as FY2028-29.
• E26. project_debt_draw[t] = project_capex[t] × project_debt_share. Management guidance: 60%, with management stating 25% of equity contributed before drawing. The calculation draws debt proportionally with capex; it does not separately enforce this equity-first condition.
• E27. debt[t] = debt[t-1] + project_debt_draw[t] − scheduled_repayment[t]. Base from C, FY26 borrowings ₹1,527.82 crore plus leases ₹109.90 crore: total ₹1,637.72 crore.
• E28. project_ramp[t] takes project revenue from zero to full over the stated ramp, starting at the commissioning year.
• E29. Construction-period interest is expensed in this calculation. There is no separately calculated capitalised-interest addition. The reported FY2026 CWIP of ₹1,828.19 crore and the announced project budget have not been reconciled to remaining expenditure.

7. Free cash flow and value

• E30. fcff[t] = ebit[t] × (1 − effective_tax_rate) + depreciation[t] − capex[t] − delta_working_capital[t].
• E31. wacc = equity_weight × cost_of_equity + (1 − equity_weight) × cost_of_debt × (1 − effective_tax_rate).
• E32. pv_explicit = Σ fcff[t] / (1 + wacc)^(t − base) over FY27–FY37.
• E33. terminal_value = fcff[FY37] × (1 + g_terminal) / (wacc − g_terminal).
• E34. pv_terminal = terminal_value / (1 + wacc)^(FY37 − base).
• E35. enterprise_value = pv_explicit + pv_terminal.
• E36. net_debt = borrowings + leases − cash − current investments − other bank balances. From C, FY26: 1,527.82 + 109.90 − 243.14 − 195.13 − 25.87 = 1,173.58.
• E37. equity_value = enterprise_value − net_debt − non_controlling_interest. NCI from C, FY26 32.45.
• E38. value_per_share = equity_value / shares. Shares from A: EPS 40.36 on PAT attributable to owners 550.53 implies 136.4 million shares, consistent with equity share capital 27.28 crore at ₹2 face value.

8. Reverse questions the model must answer

The reverse-valuation controls address these questions because the assumptions below are where all the uncertainty is and the honest use of this model is backwards.

• S1. Given a share price, what steady-state Phenolics EBIT margin does it imply, holding everything else?
• S2. Given a share price, what project asset turnover does it imply — that is, what revenue must ₹11,500 crore of new plant produce?
• S3. Given a share price, what Advanced Intermediates margin recovery does it imply?
• S4. Given a share price, what cost of equity sets value equal to price under the default operating assumptions?
• S5. What happens to value if the project commissions two years later than stated — a scenario informed by past project delays?

9. Extrapolations — carried forward from the company's own history

10. Assumptions — values no source supports

These defaults mix analyst choices with management guidance, as labelled in the interactive controls. Human review of analyst assumptions remains outstanding.

11. Gaps — what would sharpen the model, and which Source fills each

1. The borrowings note (AR FY2026 notes 20, 23) would replace the assumed cost of debt with the actual rate and maturity profile. This is the single cheapest improvement available.
2. FY2022 statements would put the peak year on the axis and let the Phenolics margin extrapolation rest on five years instead of four. The filing is image-only; the FY2022 annual report is not on the company site.
3. Subsidiary statements for Deepak Chem Tech would separate the project's spend, debt and losses from the parent's, and would let E25–E29 be checked against actual draws rather than assumed ones.
4. Any disclosed capacity, volume or realisation could support testing a more detailed Phenolics model, provided a reliable link to realised economics can be established. None exists in four years of filings; unless the company starts disclosing it, this ceiling is permanent.
5. External broker calibration remains outstanding. Four dated target-price notes are available, but no broker target has been reproduced using the broker’s assumptions.

12. What this sheet deliberately does not do

It does not use the phenol–benzene spread as a direct driver. Broker spread observations exist, but the audited statements do not disclose a company-specific volume and realisation bridge and the small comparison sample does not establish a reliable relationship. It does not model volumes because a reliable audited product-level bridge is unavailable. It does not produce a recommendation. And it does not treat the project's economics as known: E4, E11 and the asset-turnover assumption are the model's largest single lever and rest on a criterion management stated in 2022 for a different class of project.

Historical financial statements and disclosure coverage

Twenty-two statutory and annual documents were reviewed on the company research on 22 September 2026 from the company's investor page at godeepak.com. They fall into three classes with very different evidential quality.

2.0 Which documents can be quoted, and which cannot

The OCR damage in the results filings is not cosmetic: the FY2026 filing prints the same number as 7,887.07 in one place and 7,887.O7 (letter O) in another, and renders 2,120.33 as 2,1 20.33. Six filings are image-only with no text layer at all — the FY2022 annual results, Q2 and Q3 FY2023, Q1 FY2024, Q3 FY2024 and Q1 FY2025. No figure in this financial review comes from a results filing.

That constrains the window. The three annual reports carry FY2023 through FY2026 with comparatives, so the financial tables below is four years deep on the statements. FY2022 — the spread peak, and the year the equity story rests on — has no reviewed statement; its figures exist here only as management's spoken account in management commentary.

2.1 Integrated Annual Report FY2026

2.2 Integrated Annual Report FY2025

2.3 Integrated Annual Report FY2024

Consolidated statements, audited by Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP. Each report carries the year and its comparative, so FY2026+FY2025 come from 2.1 and FY2024+FY2023 from 2.3. Tables A–D below merge them; every cell is from the report that reports that year as its current year, except FY2023 which is the FY2024 report's comparative column.

A. Consolidated statement of profit and loss (AR FY26 p.403, AR FY24 p.~340)

FY23 and FY24 expense detail is in the FY2024 report and has not been transcribed here; only the lines the equation sheet is likely to consume were taken. Power and fuel is disclosed as its own line, which matters for a business whose margin management repeatedly attributes to coal and gas.

B. Consolidated segment information (AR FY26 note 43 p.453; AR FY24 note 42 p.385)

Segment profit is stated as profit before interest and tax, without allocation of central administrative costs or other income. Transfer prices are stated to be at arm's length.

C. Consolidated balance sheet (AR FY26 p.402; AR FY24 p.~339)

D. Consolidated cash flow (AR FY26 p.403-404; AR FY24)

E. Other disclosed lines

FY2024 and FY2023 geography: revenue in India 6,134.39 and 6,410.31; outside India 1,547.44 and 1,561.75 (AR FY24).

Results presentations — Q4 FY2026 and Q1 FY2027

Management's own quarterly framing, segment commentary and project status. Not yet assessed line by line; they are relevant for the project schedule and any capacity figure the statements do not carry.

2.5 Results filings — seventeen documents, reviewed and quotable only by page

Listed for research coverage and for the record that every quarter in the transcript window has its statutory filing represented. Figures are not taken from them.

Disclosure boundaries

What is public and what is not. Four years of full consolidated statements, FY2023 through FY2026, with a complete two-segment split of revenue, EBIT, assets, liabilities, capital expenditure and depreciation. Geography is disclosed only as India versus outside India, for revenue and assets. Nothing below the segment is disclosed: no product-level revenue, no phenol or acetone volume, no realisation per tonne, no spread, no utilisation rate, no capacity. Every capacity and utilisation figure in this research comes from management's spoken word in management commentary, never from a statement. There is no disclosed split of power and fuel between coal, gas and grid. Working capital is disclosed in total, not by segment.

FY2022 has no reviewed statement. The annual results filing for FY2022 is image-only. FY2022 figures — the peak year — exist only as management's account in management commentary. Any model that anchors on the FY2022 peak is anchoring on spoken figures, and should say so.

Identities that close.

• B1. Total income is revenue from operations plus other income. FY2026: 7,887.07 + 59.87 = 7,946.94. Management quoted "INR7,947 crore" on the Q4 FY2026 call, so the cited consolidated revenue headline is on a total-income basis, while the audited revenue-from-operations line excludes other income. The same holds in FY2025 (8,281.93 + 83.86 = 8,365.79 against a spoken 8,366) and FY2024 (7,681.83 against a spoken 7,758).
• B2. Management's EBITDA is profit before exceptional items and tax, plus finance costs, plus depreciation — which includes other income. FY2026: 769.93 + 46.02 + 224.64 = 1,040.59 against a spoken 1,041. FY2025: 952.75 + 27.50 + 195.37 = 1,175.62 against a spoken 1,176. An EBITDA built from revenue from operations, excluding other income, is about 60 crore lower in FY2026 and would not reproduce management's margin.
• B3. Segment results reconcile to profit before tax through interest, unallocable net expenditure and exceptional items, exactly as note 43 sets out, in all four years.
• B4. Segment revenue sums to revenue from operations after inter-segment elimination in all four years.
• B5. Balance sheet totals close: total assets equal total equity plus total liabilities in all four years.
• B6. Debt to equity. FY2026 borrowings 1,134.83 + 392.99 = 1,527.82 against equity 5,869.28 is 0.26x; with leases, 0.28x. Management stated 0.27x on the Q1 FY2027 call. The three figures are the same quantity on three conventions.
• B7. Segment capital expenditure sums to the total and the total is materially below the cash-flow capex line in every year — FY2026 1,029.08 against 1,184.66 — because the cash-flow line includes capital advances and payables for capital expenditure. These are two different measures and a model must not use them interchangeably.

Where two sources disagree. Management's spoken revenue and the statements' revenue differ by other income in every year (B1), which is a basis difference rather than a disagreement. No outright contradiction was found between the statements and management commentary; management commentary's spoken segment figures — Advanced Intermediates FY2025 2,527 and Phenolics 5,805 — match note 43 exactly.

One quantity stated on two bases. Revenue as total income and as revenue from operations (B1). EBITDA with and without other income (B2). Capital expenditure as the segment note's addition and as the cash-flow purchase line (B7). Debt with and without leases (B6). Cash generation as operating profit before working-capital movements (1,000.47 in FY2026, which is the roughly "one thousand crore a year" management speaks of) and as net cash from operating activities after working capital and tax (538.95). The gap between those last two is the single most consequential basis difference in this research: it is the difference between a business that funds half its capital programme from operations and one that funds a quarter of it.

What the statements say that the transcripts did not.

An initial reading of eighteen earnings calls could frame Phenolics as the commodity segment whose spread drives everything and Advanced Intermediates as the contract-heavier, steadier one. The four-year segment record says close to the opposite at the annual level.

Phenolics has earned between 12.0% and 13.5% every year for four years — a 1.5 point range. Advanced Intermediates fell from 18.3% to 4.2%. And the capital went to the segment that was falling: Advanced Intermediates took ₹1,003.66 crore of the ₹1,029.08 crore spent in FY2026, its assets rose from 1,995 to 3,468 crore across the four years, and its EBIT fell from 555 to 107 crore.

This does not contradict management commentary — quarterly Phenolics margins genuinely swing, and management's spoken 16-22% band is about quarters. It does mean the annual mid-cycle question is narrower than the investment interpretation implies for Phenolics and much wider for Advanced Intermediates. The model therefore treats the two segments separately.

Gaps that would sharpen the model, and the source that would fill each.

1. FY2022 statements — the peak year. The image-only filing would need a page read, or the FY2022 annual report obtained elsewhere; it is not on the company's site.
2. The borrowings note — maturity profile, rates and covenants on the ₹1,135 crore of long-term debt, and the terms of the tied-up project debt. In AR FY2026 notes 20 and 23; not yet transcribed.
3. Power and fuel split by fuel, and any disclosed realisation or volume. Likely absent; the management discussion section of each annual report is the place to check.
4. Subsidiary-level statements for Deepak Chem Tech and Deepak Phenolics, which would separate the project entity's spend and debt from the parent's. In the annual reports' subsidiary disclosures.
5. Quarterly segment data for FY2027 to date, available only in the Q1 FY2027 filing and presentation.

• The audited statements provide a two-segment split. The model adds the propylene and polycarbonate project as a separate forecast branch.
• Phenolics uses a held EBIT margin. Available spread observations did not support a reliable tonnes-times-spread model; the spread series ends in June 2025.
• The comparison share price is ₹1,611.95 observed on 22 September 2026. It is not a live quote.
• External calibration and human review of assumptions remain outstanding. Numerical reproduction does not validate the forecasts.
• Other income is already included in net unallocable income and is not added to profit before tax a second time.
• Missing historical model outputs may appear as zero in the calculation; the historical input tables distinguish unavailable inputs. Some early-year other-income and payable values are estimated using model ratios.